Search results for "Sovereign debt"
showing 10 items of 27 documents
2013 ECONOMY MOMENTUM CHALLENGES FOR NEXT 10 YEARS
2013
Last 5 years of almost unprecedented financial market turmoil it s still generating comprehensive crisis theories, market paradigms and nevertheless unprecedented situations. The aim of this paper is to explain 2013 milestone momentum for new market rules and regulations implementation - Basel III. The expected immediate cushion factors as well the possible negative impact on financial markets is presented from financial institutions perspective. Finally, the paper seeks for an exploratory after 10 years scenario connected with imminent market evolution and tendencies.
Risk Management for Sustainable Sovereign Debt Financing
2021
We model sovereign debt sustainability with optimal financing decisions under macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal uncertainty, with endogenous risk and term premia. Using a coherent risk measure we trade-off debt stock and flow risks subject to sustainability constraints. We optimize static and dynamic financing strategies and demonstrate economically significant savings from optimal financing compared with simple rules and consols, and find that optimizing the trade-offs can be critical for sustainability. The model quantifies minimum refinancing risk and maximum rate of debt reduction that a sovereign can achieve given its economic fundamentals, and an extension identifies optimal timing…
Pricing sovereign contingent convertible debt
2018
We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spread levels under fixed regimes, in order to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper uses the pricing model in a Longstaff-Schwartz American option pricing framework to compute future state contingent S-CoCo prices for risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CDS spread for the sovereign debt together with a broad market index. …
Macro-uncertainty and financial stress spillovers in the Eurozone
2020
Abstract This paper studies macro-uncertainty and financial distress spillovers within the Eurozone. We propose a novel methodology to derive the indices of spillovers, by using a Global Vector autoregressive model fitted to data sampled at mixed-frequencies. We find that macro-uncertainty and financial stress are relatively disconnected in the Eurozone. We also show that connectedness between core and periphery Eurozone countries mainly operates through financial stress and it decreases since the outbreak of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis (with an increasing role played by peripheral countries). As a result, investors and policymakers should monitor separately macro-uncertainty and fin…
The euro area sovereign debt crisis: Can contagion spread from the periphery to the core?
2014
Abstract We examine the determinants of joint default risk of euro area countries during 2007–2011. To accomplish this, we recover joint default probabilities from individual CDS contracts. In contrast to earlier theoretical studies, we find that financial linkages are an active contagion transmission channel only in the case of the troubled periphery euro area economies. During the current sovereign debt crisis, real economy linkages play a more important role in transmitting shocks from the euro area periphery towards its core. Countries that have stronger trade interconnections with troubled economies tend to have a higher expected joint default risk.
Time-varying causality between crude oil and stock markets: What can we learn from a multiscale perspective?
2017
This paper investigates the presence of time-varying causal linkages in mean and variance between oil price changes and stock returns for six major oil-importing countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US) in a multiscale framework that combines wavelet analysis and a modified version of the dynamic causality test of Lu, Hong, Wang, Lai, and Liu (2014). The results show significant bidirectional causal relations between oil and stock markets at the different time horizons for all countries. The causal links tend to be stronger at coarser scales and in periods of financial turmoil, mainly during the recent global financial and European sovereign debt crises. This evidence pr…
Asymmetric decentralisation, economic cycle, regional and local government’s borrowing in Spain
2014
This paper investigates the evolution of sub-central government borrowing in Spain over the period 1996–2011. The arguments and figures provided show that the intense process of political and fiscal decentralisation that took place over the 1990s and 2000s did not lead to higher debt ratios in terms of GDP at these tiers of government until 2007. Although a kind of overspending bias was in effect until the late 2000s, the paper shows that the evolution of GDP and tax revenues provided regional and local governments with enough resources to vigorously pursue their devolved public policy responsibilities and still keep their debt ratios under control. However, since 2008, when the world finan…
The Deadly Embrace between the Banks and the State in Spain, 1850-2015
2017
espanolEste trabajo analiza las relaciones financieras entre el sector bancario y la Hacienda publica en la Espana contemporanea. Los sistemas fiscales han sido insuficientes, generando un deficit presupuestario cronico. Este forzo una gestion irresponsable de la deuda publica hasta 1987. Ello impidio que los deficits presupuestarios pudiesen financiarse con deuda emitida en las bolsas, y obligo al Estado a recurrir a la banca (publica y privada). La evolucion de las nuevas series de las carteras de deuda publica se explica por la busqueda de rentabilidad de los bancos y por los cambios en la regulacion bancaria y la represion financiera que favorecieron al statu quo bancario. Se analizan l…
Financial stress and sovereign debt composition
2015
"Published online: 19 Oct 2015"
A Stochastic Programming Model for the Optimal Issuance of Government Bonds
2010
Sovereign states issue fixed and floating securities to fund their public debt. The value of such portfolios strongly depends on the fluctuations of the term structure of interest rates. This is a typical example of planning under uncertainty, where decisions has to be drawn on the base of the key stochastic economic factors underneath the model.We propose a multistage stochastic programming model to select portfolios of bonds, where the aim of the decision maker is that of minimizing the cost of the decision process. At the same time, we bound the conditional Value-at-Risk, a measure of risk which accounts for the losses of the tail distribution. We build an efficient frontier to trade-off…